To the relief of every country in the world minus China, Barack Obama has won re-election in a tight race with Mitt Romney.
I say tight; it certainly seemed tight going into election day but when push came to shove, it was Obama who cleaned up and won 303 electoral college votes (possibly 332 if Florida goes his way) in comparison to Romney's 206.
Obama's victory is being attributed to his "coalition" of young voters, women, Latinos and other ethnic minorities. There was a lot of noise made in the run-up to this election about whether this "coalition" would support Obama as heavily as they did in 2008, when there was a wave of euphoria around him.
There is a consensus that the "Obama-lition" not only turned out for their candidate in 2012, but they surpassed the numbers in 2008 and recorded all-time high turnouts in key districts. Some are surprised by this: the euphoria turned into disillusionment as their agent for change struggled to make his mark, battling a worldwide economic downturn, a shitstorm in the Middle East and Republicans on the Hill. Obama was never going to heal the planet and calm the oceans; he was never going to change things in just four years, instead his job was to steady the ship and that he did. But that argument did not resonate with the voting public and Mitt Romney set the stage for what he hailed as a critical point in American history.
So to understand the "surprisingly high" turnout this year, you must understand the narratives that surrounded both 2008 and 2012. 2008 was "Obama-mania" coated in hope and change and the idea of a fresh start on greener pastures. It got the "Obama-lition" ready to go and fired up and he strolled into the White House.
But 2012 is a different time. Unemployment is at record highs (Obama won with the highest unemployment rate since FDR), people are struggling to make ends meet and America is seemingly losing its aura as the world's economic superpower to China. Republicans were scared and convinced they needed "real change", a promise that Mitt Romney made. For the Democrats, the gross incompetence and flip-flopping of Romney perhaps scared them more the economy, so they felt the need to "get Obama's back" and give him a second term. That left us with two energised bases who believed their decision would change the course of history. They had to vote, they just had to because the race was painted as such a significant one.
And it was. Obama has his second term and his role as President is different. The ship is steadied and his attention now turns to change. Obama will use the next four years to build his legacy and establish his vision for America.
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Wednesday, 7 November 2012
Wednesday, 3 October 2012
LIVE: Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney in the first U.S. presidential debate
[The debate is over and I am still calling it for Mitt Romney. He was a lot better than expected, more aggressive than most expected him to be and seemed to have Obama reeling at points. There were flashes of the old Obama in the last 15 minutes, especially when discussing Obamacare, but he looked a bit lost and trying too hard to be the calmer, more controlled candidate. Obama was certainly more open about policy details, effective in challenging Romney's sketchy ideas. But in terms of debate performance, Romney was more at ease, making his ZINGERS!~! (Big Bird for example) and had the right attitude. There was nothing game-changing in this, but Obama just seemed too cautious and too restrained.]
[TWITTER: @sullydish tweets: Mitt is sounding Reagan-like & compassionate. The Etch-A-Sketch is shaking, & the old Mitt is back]
0338: Closing statements now, starting with Barack Obama. Obama thanks Romney for an excellent debate, saying that the American people should get a fair share. Obama says he said he would fight everyday for the people and he would in a second term. Romney's turn now, saying it is an election bigger than both parties. Romney talks of Obama's records, saying he would create 12 million new jobs and he would repeal Obamacare. He said he would keep America strong and he would get the middle class working again. And end.
0324: Let's talk compromise beginning with Mitt Romney, who says he would work with Republican and Democrat leaders. He says leadership from Washington is needed. Obama responds by saying Romney would have a busy first day, meeting Democratic leaders while repealing Obamacare. Obama talks of his repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, the ending of the Iraq War, the pursuit of Osama Bin Laden. He says there are times when you need to say no, but there are "fights that need to be had" and Romney would not say no to the "extremes of his own party."
0318: Talking about public education, Romney says federal money should go to the children not to the states. Obama again attacks the lack of detail in Romney and Paul Ryan's economic plan. Romney says he is not planning to make any cuts, saying that $90 billion could have got two million teachers rather than investing in green jobs. Romney talks of a school grading system, so parents know what schools to go to. "I care about education for all of our kids" finishes Romney.
0313: Back to the federal government, with Obama saying it can create "ladders of opportunity" for people to start businesses and make their own ideas. He says a better-trained workplace would create jobs. Romney touts his state's schools, calling them number one in the country, before promising to maintain military spending and religious tolerance. "The path we are taking is not working, we need to take a new path" says Romney.
0311: Romney stops Lehrer from moving on to reply. He says what he did in Massachusetts could be a model for everywhere.
0308: Mitt Romney says a board of 15 people should not tell people what healthcare to have, saying the federal government should not take over healthcare. Obama responds by saying that Romney cannot say how he will replace Obamacare, the same as his loopholes to fund tax cuts and regulations for Wall Street.
0306: [TWITTER: BBC Washington correspondent, Katty Kay tweets: If twitter is the new judge of debates, Obama is definitely losing this one.]
0301: [We are two thirds of the way through and so far, Romney seems the better of the two candidates. Obama is not as confident as he was in 2008 and Romney has been the more aggressive out of the two.]
Obama says his healthcare bill was a Republican idea and how they use the same advisors. He talks of his so-called "death panels," dispelling some of the myths surrounding it.
0256: The next segment is on Obamacare; Mitt Romney tells stories of people he has met who cannot afford healthcare. Obama argues that families were worried they would go bankrupt if they were sick. He looks straight down the lens and says Obamacare means "insurance problems cannot jerk you around." Lehrer calls for an end but Obama laughs him off, saying he had five extra seconds because of Romney's interruption.
0251: A quick conversation on regulation, with Romney saying it is good but has become "excessive" and is "harmful to the economy." Obama says the economic crisis was because of "reckless behaviour across the board" and addresses the viewers directly saying that if they think there is too much regulation, Mitt Romney is their candidate.
0248: Romney talks of "competition in the Medicare world," an idea that came from Bill Clinton's chief of staff. Obama argues that the cost of healthcare needs to completely lowered, but Romney believes the private sector provides a better product.
0245: "If you are 54 or 55, you might want to listen" says Obama who says if Obamacare ("I like that") is repealed it would cost his grandmother and others like her.
0242: It's the role of the federal government and social security now, as we start with Medicare.
[TWITTER: The New York Times' David Leonhardt tweets: I feel like the conservatives in my feed are unhappy with Romney's performance and the liberals are unhappy with Obama's.]
0237: Romney likes to use his hands to show a fall in rates - he is doing it a lot. He said he would like to take Medicaid money and give it to the states who can "care for their own poor."
0234: Obama talks of corporate taxs, saying that Exxon-Mobile doesn't need more money, challenging Romney to say what loopholes he will close to fund his cuts. Obama talks of a teacher in Las Vegas, using 10-year-old textbooks and how a cut to Medicaid would affect a family with an autistic child.
0232: "It's been four years" says Romney, who says the economy is growing slow and Obama's plan will kill 700 million jobs.
0226: Onto the deficit now, as Romney says it is "simply not moral" to add a trillion dollars a year. Romney would cut all programs that need to "borrow money from China" such as PBS, saying "I like Big Bird, I like you, Jim."
[ZINGER]
0223: Obama says they may have to move on before saying "math, common sense and our history" should prevail. Romney argues that he is not in favour of a $5 trillion tax cut, but to bring down rates. He talks of the last four years where 23 million people are in unemployment.
0221: "It's fun isn't it?" as Romney is stopped by Jim Lehrer who says they have long gone passed their first 15 minute segment.
0218: Obama is explaining his position on the removal of the Bush-era tax cuts for those who earn over $250,000. Donald Trump is a small business under Romney's plans, says Obama and does not need tax relief.
0217: Romney is going on the attack, calling Obama "inaccurate" and challenges the study that Obama references. Obama can be seen smiling and takes down notes.
0214: Obama says Romney is proposing in $5 trillion tax cuts with a further $2 trillion in military spending, citing analyst's claims that it would cost the average middle income family $2,000.
0212: "Middle income families are being crushed" says Mitt Romney who says tax rates need to come down. Romney also says "I like coal" with a wish to make America energy independent.
0209: Obama responds by giving some specific policy ideas of his own. He wants to hire more maths and science teachers, talks of Bush-tax era cuts and the need for cleaner energy sources.
0207: Mitt Romney is next. He outlines his five-point plan for promoting economic growth.
0204: We start with jobs. Obama wishes Michelle Obama a happy anniversary and cracks a joke about having it in front of 40 million people before Obama makes his case for investing in education and energy and reducing the deficit.
0200: Hello and welcome to Something Quite Witty - for a first, as I dip my toes into the water of liveblogging. It is kick off time at the Magners Arena in Denver, Colorado. Jim Lehrer is explaining the rules as Obama and Romney make their way onto stage.
[TWITTER: @sullydish tweets: Mitt is sounding Reagan-like & compassionate. The Etch-A-Sketch is shaking, & the old Mitt is back]
0338: Closing statements now, starting with Barack Obama. Obama thanks Romney for an excellent debate, saying that the American people should get a fair share. Obama says he said he would fight everyday for the people and he would in a second term. Romney's turn now, saying it is an election bigger than both parties. Romney talks of Obama's records, saying he would create 12 million new jobs and he would repeal Obamacare. He said he would keep America strong and he would get the middle class working again. And end.
0324: Let's talk compromise beginning with Mitt Romney, who says he would work with Republican and Democrat leaders. He says leadership from Washington is needed. Obama responds by saying Romney would have a busy first day, meeting Democratic leaders while repealing Obamacare. Obama talks of his repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, the ending of the Iraq War, the pursuit of Osama Bin Laden. He says there are times when you need to say no, but there are "fights that need to be had" and Romney would not say no to the "extremes of his own party."
0318: Talking about public education, Romney says federal money should go to the children not to the states. Obama again attacks the lack of detail in Romney and Paul Ryan's economic plan. Romney says he is not planning to make any cuts, saying that $90 billion could have got two million teachers rather than investing in green jobs. Romney talks of a school grading system, so parents know what schools to go to. "I care about education for all of our kids" finishes Romney.
0313: Back to the federal government, with Obama saying it can create "ladders of opportunity" for people to start businesses and make their own ideas. He says a better-trained workplace would create jobs. Romney touts his state's schools, calling them number one in the country, before promising to maintain military spending and religious tolerance. "The path we are taking is not working, we need to take a new path" says Romney.
0311: Romney stops Lehrer from moving on to reply. He says what he did in Massachusetts could be a model for everywhere.
0308: Mitt Romney says a board of 15 people should not tell people what healthcare to have, saying the federal government should not take over healthcare. Obama responds by saying that Romney cannot say how he will replace Obamacare, the same as his loopholes to fund tax cuts and regulations for Wall Street.
0306: [TWITTER: BBC Washington correspondent, Katty Kay tweets: If twitter is the new judge of debates, Obama is definitely losing this one.]
0301: [We are two thirds of the way through and so far, Romney seems the better of the two candidates. Obama is not as confident as he was in 2008 and Romney has been the more aggressive out of the two.]
Obama says his healthcare bill was a Republican idea and how they use the same advisors. He talks of his so-called "death panels," dispelling some of the myths surrounding it.
0256: The next segment is on Obamacare; Mitt Romney tells stories of people he has met who cannot afford healthcare. Obama argues that families were worried they would go bankrupt if they were sick. He looks straight down the lens and says Obamacare means "insurance problems cannot jerk you around." Lehrer calls for an end but Obama laughs him off, saying he had five extra seconds because of Romney's interruption.
0251: A quick conversation on regulation, with Romney saying it is good but has become "excessive" and is "harmful to the economy." Obama says the economic crisis was because of "reckless behaviour across the board" and addresses the viewers directly saying that if they think there is too much regulation, Mitt Romney is their candidate.
0248: Romney talks of "competition in the Medicare world," an idea that came from Bill Clinton's chief of staff. Obama argues that the cost of healthcare needs to completely lowered, but Romney believes the private sector provides a better product.
0245: "If you are 54 or 55, you might want to listen" says Obama who says if Obamacare ("I like that") is repealed it would cost his grandmother and others like her.
0242: It's the role of the federal government and social security now, as we start with Medicare.
[TWITTER: The New York Times' David Leonhardt tweets: I feel like the conservatives in my feed are unhappy with Romney's performance and the liberals are unhappy with Obama's.]
0237: Romney likes to use his hands to show a fall in rates - he is doing it a lot. He said he would like to take Medicaid money and give it to the states who can "care for their own poor."
0234: Obama talks of corporate taxs, saying that Exxon-Mobile doesn't need more money, challenging Romney to say what loopholes he will close to fund his cuts. Obama talks of a teacher in Las Vegas, using 10-year-old textbooks and how a cut to Medicaid would affect a family with an autistic child.
0232: "It's been four years" says Romney, who says the economy is growing slow and Obama's plan will kill 700 million jobs.
0226: Onto the deficit now, as Romney says it is "simply not moral" to add a trillion dollars a year. Romney would cut all programs that need to "borrow money from China" such as PBS, saying "I like Big Bird, I like you, Jim."
[ZINGER]
0223: Obama says they may have to move on before saying "math, common sense and our history" should prevail. Romney argues that he is not in favour of a $5 trillion tax cut, but to bring down rates. He talks of the last four years where 23 million people are in unemployment.
0221: "It's fun isn't it?" as Romney is stopped by Jim Lehrer who says they have long gone passed their first 15 minute segment.
0218: Obama is explaining his position on the removal of the Bush-era tax cuts for those who earn over $250,000. Donald Trump is a small business under Romney's plans, says Obama and does not need tax relief.
0217: Romney is going on the attack, calling Obama "inaccurate" and challenges the study that Obama references. Obama can be seen smiling and takes down notes.
0214: Obama says Romney is proposing in $5 trillion tax cuts with a further $2 trillion in military spending, citing analyst's claims that it would cost the average middle income family $2,000.
0212: "Middle income families are being crushed" says Mitt Romney who says tax rates need to come down. Romney also says "I like coal" with a wish to make America energy independent.
0209: Obama responds by giving some specific policy ideas of his own. He wants to hire more maths and science teachers, talks of Bush-tax era cuts and the need for cleaner energy sources.
0207: Mitt Romney is next. He outlines his five-point plan for promoting economic growth.
0204: We start with jobs. Obama wishes Michelle Obama a happy anniversary and cracks a joke about having it in front of 40 million people before Obama makes his case for investing in education and energy and reducing the deficit.
0200: Hello and welcome to Something Quite Witty - for a first, as I dip my toes into the water of liveblogging. It is kick off time at the Magners Arena in Denver, Colorado. Jim Lehrer is explaining the rules as Obama and Romney make their way onto stage.
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
Will gay marriage cost Barack Obama the presidency?
Politics is a cynical trade. When the President of the United States makes a historic announcement that he is in favour of gay marriage, the first reaction is not one of celebration. Instead it is fear of what the polls will say. On Monday night, a New York Times/CBS poll gave Obama these hard numbers: 67% of those polled thought his endorsement of gay marriage was for "political reasons".
It shows the cynicism in politics when two thirds of the public believe Obama was only doing it for the sake of doing it. Twitter was an interesting place to be in the aftermath, the perfect place to gauge this reaction. All kinds of theories were flying about, ranging from the idea that senior Democrats pushed Obama into accepting gay marriage to the announcement being a vote-winning tactic before the general election.
I am not naive, I know how politics works. The upcoming election was likely a factor in Obama's decision to make the announcement, in order to try and win back those on the Left who were still feeling "short-Changed". But accepting gay marriage as a vote-winner? In America? Those who believe this should look at the numbers. 57% of those polled feel no different about Obama than they did before his announcement, but 26% said they were now less likely to vote for Obama. If it was intended a vote-winner, they royally screwed that one up, didn't they?
I am inclined to think that the announcement was a genuine change of opinion from Obama - albeit quite sudden and rushed. It was certainly a risky move from him and one that could cost him the presidency. As the polls show, Obama just lost 26% of votes. But to be fair to him, there is no data to suggest who that 26% of people are. They could be Republican voters, who see the announcement as further evidence that he is not their man. However in what is proving to be an already tightly-contested election, it is possible that even the slightest swing away from Obama to Romney could hurt the incumbent's chances.
The good news for Obama is only 7% of those polled view gay marriage as the most important issue. The majority are still regarding this election as an economic one. Jobs and unemployment levels are what Obama and Romney will be jousting over in the coming months. But it was a bold move for Obama to say what he did. He is playing Russian Roulette with his electoral chances, a game that I personally respect him for.
It shows the cynicism in politics when two thirds of the public believe Obama was only doing it for the sake of doing it. Twitter was an interesting place to be in the aftermath, the perfect place to gauge this reaction. All kinds of theories were flying about, ranging from the idea that senior Democrats pushed Obama into accepting gay marriage to the announcement being a vote-winning tactic before the general election.
I am not naive, I know how politics works. The upcoming election was likely a factor in Obama's decision to make the announcement, in order to try and win back those on the Left who were still feeling "short-Changed". But accepting gay marriage as a vote-winner? In America? Those who believe this should look at the numbers. 57% of those polled feel no different about Obama than they did before his announcement, but 26% said they were now less likely to vote for Obama. If it was intended a vote-winner, they royally screwed that one up, didn't they?
I am inclined to think that the announcement was a genuine change of opinion from Obama - albeit quite sudden and rushed. It was certainly a risky move from him and one that could cost him the presidency. As the polls show, Obama just lost 26% of votes. But to be fair to him, there is no data to suggest who that 26% of people are. They could be Republican voters, who see the announcement as further evidence that he is not their man. However in what is proving to be an already tightly-contested election, it is possible that even the slightest swing away from Obama to Romney could hurt the incumbent's chances.
The good news for Obama is only 7% of those polled view gay marriage as the most important issue. The majority are still regarding this election as an economic one. Jobs and unemployment levels are what Obama and Romney will be jousting over in the coming months. But it was a bold move for Obama to say what he did. He is playing Russian Roulette with his electoral chances, a game that I personally respect him for.
Thursday, 19 January 2012
On the campaign trail '12: How the U.S. presidential race works
To me, the U.S. Presidential Race is one of the most interesting, enthralling and sometimes plain scary events in global politics. Take for example, recently-departed Texas governor, Rick Perry's 'Strong' advertisement, which is 31 seconds of pure uncomfortableness. To think this man was ever hoping to be President sickens me. It is 2012 and you want to still want to make an argument that there is something wrong when 'gays can serve in the military?' Like I said before, scary. Swiftly moving on, the process of electing the most important public figure in the world is a long one and is commonly misunderstood.
The race is contested between the two major parties in America, the Democrats and the Republicans. Barack Obama (Democrat) is currently President and the Republicans must decide who will contest Obama in the general election of November 2012. However, before Obama, the Republicans fight amongst themselves to win their party's nomination to face Obama in a stage called the primaries.
The primaries are votes carried out over a period of time across all 50 states. The only exception to this is caucuses, which are not a ballot, rather a meeting where voters gather together and discuss who they think should win the nomination. In both the primaries and caucuses, the votes are tallied up and shared amongst the candidates, according to the percentage they received. What they win is a delegate, a person who will represent the candidate at the next stage of the race. The number of total delegates are proportional to the size of the state. Still with me? Well, simply put, the primaries and caucuses decide who will be the candidate to face the President.
In this current process, there are only four Republicans still in the race: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. Originally, there were eight candidates. But the purpose of the primaries is to eliminate weak or even scandalous individuals. Herman Cain is one such candidate, who amongst other issues, was accused of having a 13-year affair. That is a strength of the primaries. Without them, would-be Presidents would not be scrutinised or challenged by the media as intensely as they are during primary season.
After the primaries finish on June 26th in Utah, the next stage of the race begins: the conventions begin. The conventions are very media-friendly events, with television cameras rolling nonstop as party figures make speeches to promote the upcoming general election. It is also the place where the party officially announce their chosen candidate. The delegates from primary season gather and call out who they back, and who won their vote, and although the delegate is not technically made to follow who won their vote, the answer is typically known. The delegates are totalled and the candidate with the most wins. Cue, confetti, fireworks, generic mainstream rock song as they walk onto the stage, fist-pumping the air and giving a rousing speech to kickstart the final portion of the race: the general election.
Back to 2012, the current favourite is Mitt Romney, the governor of Massachusetts. Romney's popularity amongst Republicans surprises me. In 2006, he introduced universal-healthcare to his home-state, and bearing in mind the popularity of national health-care reform, 'Obamacare', among Republican voters, Romney could alienate his voterbase when it comes to tackling Obama.
Come Tuesday 6th November 2012, the 57th presidential election will take place. The belief is that voters will have a choice of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. By that time, the process will have lasted 21 months and cost billions of dollars (the 2008 campaign was the most costly in history totalling $5.3 billion.) Is that too much money? Is it too long of a process? That decision is up to you, but remember this is the selection of the President of the United States. As long as the right man ends up in the White House, the time and effort will all be worth it. After all, we definitely do not want Rick Perry.
The race is contested between the two major parties in America, the Democrats and the Republicans. Barack Obama (Democrat) is currently President and the Republicans must decide who will contest Obama in the general election of November 2012. However, before Obama, the Republicans fight amongst themselves to win their party's nomination to face Obama in a stage called the primaries.
The primaries are votes carried out over a period of time across all 50 states. The only exception to this is caucuses, which are not a ballot, rather a meeting where voters gather together and discuss who they think should win the nomination. In both the primaries and caucuses, the votes are tallied up and shared amongst the candidates, according to the percentage they received. What they win is a delegate, a person who will represent the candidate at the next stage of the race. The number of total delegates are proportional to the size of the state. Still with me? Well, simply put, the primaries and caucuses decide who will be the candidate to face the President.
In this current process, there are only four Republicans still in the race: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. Originally, there were eight candidates. But the purpose of the primaries is to eliminate weak or even scandalous individuals. Herman Cain is one such candidate, who amongst other issues, was accused of having a 13-year affair. That is a strength of the primaries. Without them, would-be Presidents would not be scrutinised or challenged by the media as intensely as they are during primary season.
After the primaries finish on June 26th in Utah, the next stage of the race begins: the conventions begin. The conventions are very media-friendly events, with television cameras rolling nonstop as party figures make speeches to promote the upcoming general election. It is also the place where the party officially announce their chosen candidate. The delegates from primary season gather and call out who they back, and who won their vote, and although the delegate is not technically made to follow who won their vote, the answer is typically known. The delegates are totalled and the candidate with the most wins. Cue, confetti, fireworks, generic mainstream rock song as they walk onto the stage, fist-pumping the air and giving a rousing speech to kickstart the final portion of the race: the general election.
Back to 2012, the current favourite is Mitt Romney, the governor of Massachusetts. Romney's popularity amongst Republicans surprises me. In 2006, he introduced universal-healthcare to his home-state, and bearing in mind the popularity of national health-care reform, 'Obamacare', among Republican voters, Romney could alienate his voterbase when it comes to tackling Obama.
Come Tuesday 6th November 2012, the 57th presidential election will take place. The belief is that voters will have a choice of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. By that time, the process will have lasted 21 months and cost billions of dollars (the 2008 campaign was the most costly in history totalling $5.3 billion.) Is that too much money? Is it too long of a process? That decision is up to you, but remember this is the selection of the President of the United States. As long as the right man ends up in the White House, the time and effort will all be worth it. After all, we definitely do not want Rick Perry.
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